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Contents
SECOND OPINION
Special Series: Y2K -- Part 1
Y1K BEGAN THE DARK AGES
So, what about Y2K? The Federalist has not received a single inquiry this year regarding our lack of comment about the approaching Y2K "crisis." That means most of our readers think the disruptions will be minimal -- or their bunkers are fully stocked. Needless to say, after reading this first of our three-part summary on Y2K, a few eschatologists who are convinced Y2K is the apocalypse will hit our Member Comments page. In fact, we will set up a special mailbox for those critics: <ToldYouSo@Federalist.com>, but ask that you hold your comments and send them to us after January 1st, 2000 -- if you still have power.
So, what about Y2K -- really? Our Editorial Board has concluded for the last year -- with some dissention -- that the "facts" being cited as predictors for the shutdown of the western world after New Year's Eve were about 10% substance and 90% fragrance. The "fragrance" part creates the perception of an impending crisis, and such perceptions alone can be problematic. Having said that, there is the remaining 10% of substantive concern.
While the probability of viable Y2K threats is low, their scope, if they in fact occur, could be very widespread. So, what are the real threats? Aside from the sporadic problems that may occur with communication and power grids, we conclude that the most significant threat is posed by the unknown probability and scope of a degradation of computer and data management confidence in the financial sectors of our economy, and those around the world -- particularly in Asia. Financial markets are perception dependent, which is to say, disrupt the perception and reality will follow. The State Department's inspector general has said, "The global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level." The President's Council of Economic Advisers concludes, "Even if disruptions turn out to be more serious than most analysts expect, they will most likely show up primarily as inconveniences and losses in certain sectors. ... However, it would be unwise to state categorically that a Y2K recession is not in the cards." Because of interdependent economies, what affects some world markets affects the U.S. economy -- with comparable severity. The caveat is the unknown probability for disruptions in financial markets with which the U.S. is, to varying degrees, interdependent. "The truth is, it's not possible to know how severe the impacts are going to be," said Bob Olson, research director at the Institute for Alternative Futures. "It is too big to see. No one can have an understanding of all the ways that small failures in networks, interconnected computers and interconnected supply chains around the world might cascade to cause serious failures." Concerning the potential for the disruption of domestic economic continuity, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said before the Senate Special Committee on the year 2000 Technology Problem, "Historically, the fin de siecle has caused quite a stir...[among] doomsayers and apocalyptic fear mongers.... After studying the potential impact of Y2K on the telecommunications industry, health care, economy, and other vital sectors of our lives, I would like to warn that we have cause for fear."
Sens. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) and Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), leaders of that Senate committee, said, "Make no mistake...we believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant. The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed."
Committee chairman Mr. Bennett added, "It's clearly a dilemma. You don't want to add to a sense of panic. At the same time, you don't want to be irresponsible in case there is a problem. I cannot be optimistic and I am generally concerned about the possibility of power shortages.... Supermarket supplies may be disrupted.... Pay attention to the things that are vulnerable in your life and make contingency plans.... Don't panic, but don't spend too much time sleeping, either."
The House Y2K panel concluded, "The public faces a high (probability) that critical services provided by the government and the private sector could be severely disrupted by the Year 2000 computing crisis." The General Accounting Office reports, "More than one-third of the most important [government] systems won't be fixed in time." So, what do we suggest? What we don't know about Y2K is a serious matter, and it has been an excellent catalyst for prompting Americans to think about their vulnerability and level of preparedness for all contingencies -- continuity of government and commerce -- terrorism here and abroad -- disrupted oil supplies, etc. Some of us may have a recollection of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the notion of "Civil Defense," but most Americans living today know nothing of a world war, and fewer still understand the effects of a severe economic depression.
It would be a disservice to our members if we did not advise you to take Y2K preparedness seriously, and provide a preparedness rationale beyond Y2K. Thus, we suggest, for those who have not already done so, a prudent consideration of the risks to your family posed by Y2K -- and the emerging generation of new threats -- and a program of preparedness, which will be the topic of Y2K -- Part 2, "So Why Prepare?" (The second part of this series will appear in next Tuesday's Volume 99-44 Brief, which will also contain important links to government and private preparedness Web sites. The third part of this series will appear in Friday's Volume 99-44 Digest.)
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THE LAST WORD
AND NOW BACK TO WHERE IT ALL STARTED --Y0K :
Subject: Y0K
While browsing through material in the recesses of the Roman Section of the British Museum, a researcher recently came across a tattered bit of parchment. After some effort he translated it and found it was a letter from a man called Plutonius with the title of "magister factorium," or keeper of the calendar, to one Cassius. It was dated, strangely enough, December 15th, 1 BC -- about 2,000 years ago. The text of the message follows:
Translated from Latin scroll dated 2BC:
Dear Cassius:
Are you still working on the Y zero K problem? This change from BC to AD is giving us a lot of headaches and we haven't much time left. I don't know how people will cope with working the wrong way around. Having been working happily downwards forever, now we have to start thinking upwards.
You would think that someone would have thought of it earlier and not left it to us to sort it all out at this last minute.
I spoke to Caesar the other evening. He was livid that Julius hadn't done something about it when he was sorting out the calendar. He said he could see why Brutus turned nasty. We called in Consultus the astrologer, but he simply said that continuing downwards using minus BC won't work and as usual charged a fortune for doing nothing useful. Surely, we will not have to throw out all our hardware and start again? Macrahard will make yet another fortune out of this, I suppose. The money lenders are paranoid of course! They have been told that all usury rates will invert and they will have to pay their clients to take out loans. It's an ill wind.... As for myself, I just can't see the sand in an hourglass flowing upwards. We have heard that there are three wise men in the East who have been working on the problem, but unfortunately they won't arrive until it's all over. I have heard that there are plans to stable all horses at midnight at the turn of the year as there are fears that they will stop and try to run backwards, causing immense damage to chariots and possible loss of life. Some say the world will cease to exist at the moment of transition. Anyway, we are still continuing to work on this blasted Y0K problem. I will send a parchment to you if anything further develops. And if you have any ideas, please let me know.
Plutonius
[ Source: http://www.federalist.com/current\fedbrief-99-44.html ]
AND WE STILL HADN'T LEARNED OUR LESSON BY -- y1k:
An Article from a London Newspaper (circa 999 AD) Canterbury, England. An atmosphere close to panic prevails today throughout Europe as the millennial year 1000 approaches, bringing with it the so-called "Y1K Bug," a menace which, until recently, hardly anyone had ever heard of. Prophets of doom are warning that the entire fabric of Western Civilization, based as it now is upon monastic computations, could collapse, and that there is simply not enough time left to fix the problem. Just how did this disaster in the making ever arise? Why did no one anticipate that a change from a three-digit to a four-digit year would throw into total disarray all liturgical chants and all metrical verse in which any date is mentioned?
Every formulaic hymn, prayer, ceremony and incantation dealing with dated events will have to be rewritten to accommodate three extra syllables. All tabular chronologies with three-space year columns, maintained for generations by scribes using carefully hand-ruled lines on vellum sheets, will now have to be converted to four-space columns, at enormous cost. In the meantime, the validity of every official event, from baptisms to burials, from confirmations to coronations, may be called into question.
"We should have seen it coming ," says Brother Cedric of St. Michael Abbey, here in Canterbury. "What worries me most is that THOUSAND contains the word THOU, which occurs in nearly all our prayers, and of course always refers to God. Using it now in the name of the year will seem almost blasphemous, and is bound to cause terrible confusion. Of course, we could always use Latin, but that might be even worse -- The Latin word for Thousand is Mille, which is the same as the Latin for mile. We won't know whether we are talking about time or distance!" Stonemasons are already reported threatening to demand a proportional pay increase for having to carve an extra numeral in all dates on tombstones, cornerstones and monuments. Together with its inevitable ripple effects, this alone could plunge the hitherto-stable medieval economy into chaos.
A conference of clerics has been called at Winchester to discuss the entire issue, but doomsayers are convinced that the matter is now one of personal survival. Many families, in expectation of the worst, are stocking up on holy water and indulgences.
[Source: http://www.federalist.com/current\fedbrief-99-44.html ]
Y2K -- Part 3 (Report due January 15th!)
This Week's Clintoon: http://www.conservativenews.org/cartoon/cartoon.asp
-- PUBLIUS --
"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people." --9th Amendment to the United States Constitution.
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." --10th Amendment to the United States Constitution.
FAMILY IN BRIEF
Special Series: Y2K -- Part 2
So, Why Prepare?
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KEY TO SUCCESS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE
"The greatest antidote to worry, whether you're getting ready for spaceflight or facing a problem of daily life, is preparation ...the more you try to envision what might happen and what your best response and options are, the more you are able to allay your fears about the future." --John Glenn The most significant factor promoting a successful response to an emergency, particularly one that is catastrophic, is individual and community preparedness. This point cannot be overemphasized! Some of us live in areas of the country that experience weather or geologic phenomena, which periodically remind us how much we take for granted regarding our dependence on power and communication grids, not to mention running water and basic food supplies. But the notion of preparedness faces stiff opposition in the absence of such experience. Discussing Y2K and other emerging threats to daily routine tends to cause discomfort because it reminds us that we are vulnerable to forces beyond our control. The greater the potential crisis, the greater the resistance to acknowledging and preparing for such a crisis.
When assessing vulnerability, one must consider the issues of "probability" and "scope," and on that consideration, take informed steps toward preparedness. While the probability of serious Y2K-related problems might be considered low, the scope of their effect, both direct and collateral, on continuity of commerce and government can be very widespread. Translation: Service and material delivery in local communities may be interrupted for extended periods of time.
In Part 1 of this series, we noted, "It would be a disservice to our members if we did not advise you to take Y2K preparedness seriously, and provide a preparedness rationale beyond Y2K." If we can't interest you in preparedness related to Y2K, let us entertain you with a rationale that presents a greater risk: The emerging threat of domestic terrorism -- particularly biological and technological terrorism.
Again, while the probability of such attacks may be relatively low, the scope of their effect, both direct and collateral, on continuity of commerce and government can be very widespread. The extent of that effect depends on proximity and severity.
In the last twenty years, the media have entertained far too many "Chicken Little experts" proclaiming that terrorism is at our doorstep. For that reason, we have become somewhat desensitized to the issue and view it as a distant problem (unless, of course, you are from New York, where Islamic terrorists came very close to collapsing one of the World Trade Center towers with a bomb). In the last decade, however, with the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and the rise of international terrorist groups such as that of Osama bin Laden (which are actively targeting the U.S.), the federal government and military have directed enormous emphasis and resources toward preparedness and response planning for such an attack.
Now, bin Laden's rogues may not be targeting your hometown. But as we stated above, an attack on any major U.S. city could disrupt the delivery of basic services and necessities in an entire region. Because our power, communication and supply grids are so interdependent, what first appears to be a contained crisis can quickly become unconfined.
Indeed, a report issued in September by a federal advisory commission responsible for assessing terrorist threats against U.S. citizens concludes, "States, terrorists, and other disaffected groups will acquire weapons of mass destruction and mass disruption, and some will use them. Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers." Mr. Clinton even declared, "I would say [the threat of a chemical or biological attack] is highly likely to happen sometime in the next few years."
The threat of terrorism is now estimated to be so high that in October, the Department of Defense announced it would replace the U.S. Atlantic Command with the U.S. Joint Forces Command, which will have the new mandate for responding to domestic incidents of terrorism. The most recent report on national security threats identifies biological terrorism -- "unannounced attacks on U.S. cities" as "the most serious threat to our security." Responding to the fact that our active duty military has not had a domestic response mandate since the Civil War, Secretary of Defense William Cohen noted, "[The military must] deal with the threats we are most likely to face."
Several members of The Federalist Editorial Board have been involved, at the highest levels of government, in national security planning related to terrorism. We can assure you that one uniform response we hear from our colleagues when discussing the merits of Y2K preparedness is that such efforts have revived a much-needed citizen awareness of our vulnerability to threats from all vectors. The false public assumption that help will be just a phone call away notwithstanding, the reality is that emergency response capabilities at the county, state (including National Guard) and federal levels are severely limited. Further, in a crisis that is regional rather than local, the military does not have sufficient resources to sustain large numbers of citizens for more than just days.
We again petition our members who have not already done so, to initiate a prudent consideration of the risks to your family posed by Y2K -- and the emerging generation of new threats. We encourage you to initiate at least a basic program of preparedness, which will be the topic of Y2K -- Part 3, "Who Ya Gonna Call...?" which will appear in Friday's Volume 99-44 Digest.
FOR THE RECORD The Senate's Y2K assessment committee conclusions about potential Y2K effects on various sectors of our economy:
UTILITIES. Only about 50 percent of electric utilities had repaired Y2K systems as of December. "Of greatest concern are about 1,000 small, rural electric utilities." Local and regional blackouts are "likely," but a "prolonged, nationwide blackout" is not.
HEALTH CARE. Some 64 percent of hospitals have no plans to test their Y2K fixes before the crunch date. Some 90 percent of doctors' offices are unaware of how exposed they are to Y2K problems. Federal payment systems for Medicare and other health-insurance programs are behind schedule for repair. "The health care industry is one of the worst-prepared for Y2K and carries a significant potential for harm."
TELECOMMUNICATIONS. Some 95 percent of telephone systems are expected to be ready. No reliable data exist on readiness to test data networks, cellular or satellite communications systems, or 1,400 regional carriers.
TRANSPORTATION. "On average, the nation's 670 domestic airports started Y2K compliance too late," the report states. The Federal Aviation Administration has "made great strides" but "it still has a way to go. ... Planes will not fall out of the sky, but flight rationing to some areas and countries is possible." Aviation problems will be "much worse" abroad.
FINANCE. Banks and automated tellers are expected to function and to have enough cash. The Federal Reserve intends to expand available currency by one-third, to about $200 billion, to cover withdrawals "and has other contingency arrangements available if needed," Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
GOVERNMENT. Federal agencies vary widely in preparedness; among the least prepared is the Department of Defense. (A House panel monitoring federal Y2K efforts issued an overall grade of C+ on Tuesday. Defense reported that only 72 percent of its "mission-critical systems" are ready; Transportation, only 53 percent. However, state and local governments vary widely in preparations, the Senate panel said, noting its "greatest concern is the ability of local communities to provide 911 emergency services."
BUSINESS. Heavily regulated fields such as banking, insurance and finance "are furthest ahead," but "health care, oil, education, agriculture, farming, food processing and the construction industry are lagging behind," the report said. Any failure of a critical system is likely to cost up to $3.5 million to repair and to take three to 15 days.
INTERNATIONAL. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, which together supply 30 percent of U.S. oil imports, are both 12 to 18 months behind U.S. Y2K repair efforts, exemplifying how problems abroad might have an impact here. Infection of repaired U.S. computer systems from links to unfixed foreign ones is also worrisome.
Perhaps equally worrisome is how impossible it is to measure the problem in advance. "It is unfortunate how little we still know about the scope and the severity of the Y2K problem for the U.S. and for the world," the Senate report observes.
On reason it is difficult to determine the probability and scope of Y2K is the issue of embedded processors. If the embedded processor has a routine for scheduled maintenance, the routine may be triggered in the year 2000. Consider where we have embedded processors and other computers:
BUILDINGS: Elevators, heating systems (January 1, 2000 is in the middle of the winter), cooling systems, lighting, burglar alarms, fire detection and suppression systems, access control systems. HOSPITALS: Patient care systems, diagnostic machines, life support machines.
TRANSPORTATION: Traffic signals, ships, trucks, airplanes, cars, trains, air traffic control.
COMMUNICATIONS: Telephones, two-way radios, televisions, radio and TV transmitters, phone systems, cell phone systems, beeper transmitters, satellites.
ENERGY: Oil wells (including oil rigs in the ocean), oil and gas pipelines, electricity generators, electricity distribution and control systems.
LIFE SUPPORT: Water wells, water distribution systems, sewage systems.
MILITARY: Nuclear and conventional missiles, weapons systems, command and control systems, vehicles, communications gear.
The embedded processor is the greatest single unknown in the Y2K equation. With tens of billions of them, it is impossible even to check all of them, much less get them fixed. Some estimates claim that a two percent embedded processor failure rate would bring the U.S. economy to a standstill.
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SECOND OPINION
Special Series: Y2K -- Part 3
"WHO YA GONNA CALL?"
"Why prepare?" The Federalist asked in the last installment of this series. We don't like to answer a question with a question, but remember the theme song from the "Ghost Busters" movie: "Who ya gonna call...?"
In Part 1, The Federalist emphasized that individual and family preparedness is the critical foundation of community recovery efforts in any crisis. In Part 2, The Federalist stressed that Y2K has been a catalyst for a renewed interest in preparedness and noted that emerging threats to continuity of commerce and government posed by terrorist groups targeting the U.S. is a rationale -- more serious than Y2K -- for preparedness. We also noted that no level of government has the ability to provide the basic needs of an entire region of the country for more than a matter of days. So, "who ya gonna call" if a crisis of regional proportions occurs? What follows are the basic steps necessary to protect and provide for your families in the event the distribution of goods and services is disrupted for an extended period of time. Preparing to protect and provide for your family in the event of a crisis is not difficult. To begin this process, make an assessment of your needs and how dependent those needs are on functioning power and communication grids and the normal distribution of basic necessities. Make a list of those items that are essential if you could not restock them for up to four weeks. After careful deliberation, The Federalist Editorial Board recommends that every individual or family be able to sustain itself for a minimum of four weeks (considering that most households have the ability to be self-sustaining for up to two weeks). To assist in this process, consider these skills and necessities.
1. WATER -- An average consumption of water per person, per day is one gallon. This is for drinking and food preparation. An additional one gallon per person is estimated if you include washing of dishes or clothes. If you can anticipate a crisis that might affect water supplies, fill clean bathtubs with water. If not, consider other sources of water such as that stored in your water heater, a neighborhood swimming pool, or rain runoff. To begin a program of water storage now, thoroughly rinse plastic milk containers or 2-liter soda bottles, and fill them with water. To safeguard it against bacteria, put water in an open container and add scent-free bleach 24 hours before consumption. Use approximately 2-3 drops of bleach per liter. Water from a tub or pool should be boiled if possible, or filter water through forced water purifiers available from camping goods suppliers. Choose a water purifier that can filter up to 0.002 microns.
2. FOOD -- After water provisions, food is the next most important concern, and will take careful planning. Because of "just in time" inventories, stores no longer maintain more one or two days of shelf inventories. In other words, the shelves will be empty in the first hours of a crisis. One method for accumulating a food surplus is to purchase extra quantities of your family's favorite foods each week. Be sure to purchase food types that will store well. A cool, dark place is best for food storage and will almost double the extended shelf life of some foods. Store extra pasta, rice, beans, and canned meats. (Some of the Federalist's Editorial Board members carry their four-week food supply around their waistlines at all times!)
3. HEALTH -- If you or a family member have specific medical needs or medication requirements, check with your doctor about maintaining enough supplies on hand for an additional month. Be sure to check for expiration dates on medications and rotate your supply, first using those that expire earliest. Also, purchase or put together as comprehensive a first aid kit as possible, along with an instruction book to administer first aid in an emergency. Get hard copies of your medical files, x-rays, etc., so that an emergency caregiver can have a comprehensive knowledge of your medical history. Another consideration in this area is supplies for sanitary needs: diapers, toilet paper, feminine hygiene products, etc. Consider alternatives for disposing of garbage and human waste.
4. HEAT -- Take inventory of heat and power sources in your home. If your central gas or electric heat system is not operational, do you have a fireplace and wood to burn? If possible, the installation of a wood-burning heater in your fireplace provides an excellent alternative heat source. Make sure you have the obvious -- extra warm clothing and blankets. Without electricity, what source of power would you use for lights, cooking, or running essential equipment? Don't overlook the basics such as batteries for flashlights and propane for outdoor grills or camping stoves. Other considerations are: Self-Defense -- Before all else, the ability to defend your family and community is essential. Combine your families or neighbors into a central location so that you can work together for security and safety. Communication -- Do you own a portable radio? Keep sufficient batteries on hand to operate a radio for four weeks. Transportation -- Gas pumps don't work without electricity. If you could not obtain gasoline for a period of time, what would be the alternatives? Currency -- Banks may be closed. What will you use for negotiable currency?
Discuss emergency preparedness with your neighbors. Above all, encourage neighborhood preparedness and avoid the "bunker mentality." Opt instead to be prepared for assisting others who may be without resources. The Federalist Editorial Board has an abiding faith in the people of our great nation -- our ability to come together to serve one another in times of tragedy or crisis.
And a final note: Remain vigilant -- a patriot first -- in any crisis of national magnitude. There is great opportunity for all kinds of mischief when a society is under duress. (See Franklin Roosevelt's "New Deal.") If ever there were political opportunists, they are Bill Clinton and his ilk of Sociocrats. Given their propensity -- vis a vis executive orders -- for turning any "crisis," real or perceived, into a government growth opportunity, do not sell out individual rights for the promise of short-term comforts.
(Note: John Koskinen, chairman of Mr. Clinton's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion, will release the government's final report on the nation's computer readiness Wednesday, November 10th.)
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